Epidemiology models explain rumour spreading during France’s Great Fear of 1789

In 1789, rumours spread like a virus across France: gangs of bandits were attacking villages, destroying crops and terrorizing peasants, mobilized by nobles trying to suppress political unrest. None of it was true. But the resulting panic and upheaval, called the Great Fear, helped to fuel the French Revolution — and provoked a debate that still divides historians.

Did a deliberate effort to advance revolution drive the rumours? Or did they emerge spontaneously, driven by genuine terror? Now, scientists have used the methods of epidemiology to solve the mystery. Drawing on historical records and models developed to trace epidemics, researchers conclude that the fearmongering had rational, not emotional, roots.

Zapperi, S., Varlet-Bertrand, C., Bastidon, C., La Porta, C. A. M. & Parent, A. Nature https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09392-2 (2025).